RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli

RB Leipzig’s stuttering attempt to secure another top-four Bundesliga finish faces a must-win clash against newcomers St. Pauli at the Red Bull Arena. 

These are not the most promising times for Leipzig, even though they entered this round narrowly inside the Bundesliga top four. Last weekend’s tepid 0-0 draw at Union Berlin marked their third consecutive league stalemate and a fourth winless top-flight outing on the trot (L1). Marco Rose’s side generated an underwhelming 0.24 xG in that contest, casting doubt on this scoring proficiency ahead of an ominous-looking clash against St. Pauli. Indeed, ‘Die Roten Bullen’ have won none of the last four league H2Hs (D1, L3), including a scoreless draw in this season’s reverse fixture. Leipzig avenged that dismal run with a 4-2 DFB-Pokal win in October, suggesting they’re well-positioned to avoid going five consecutive league matches without winning for the first time in the club’s top-flight history. 

Meanwhile, St. Pauli’s quest to avoid an immediate relegation is firmly back on track after a first set of three consecutive unbeaten league games this season (W2, D1) lifted them seven points clear of 18th-placed Heidenheim. Head coach Alexander Blessin based his team’s survival bid on a rock-solid backline that only capitulated once during that sequence. For further context, only runaway leaders Bayern Munich (19) have conceded fewer league goals than St. Pauli’s 22 this season, highlighting their defense as this team’s biggest strength. Furthermore, they’ve done well on their recent road trips, winning twice on their last three in the Bundesliga (L1) – as many as in their first seven away league games this season (L5).